Markowitz offers some common objections to national divorce, but I think misses the real argument for it. This isn’t simply about two groups with diverging political preferences deciding they’d be happier apart. Independence would be a survival tactic for many Americans.
Our country’s most powerful institutions—concentrated in blue states but exerting power throughout the country—are using their power aggressively to impose a cultural revolution and destroy the American way of life.
The left uses federal power, especially agency and judicial, to suppress state efforts to push back. They use federal policy to reshape life in red states (Biden’s OSHA policy, mileage tax, etc.). And they use it to cement changes initiated by private actors such as HR depts.
Thus, splitting off could offer some chance of meaningful resistance. States could free themselves of these federal policies, protect their borders, forcefully reshape internal institutions pushing leftism, and resist the influence of outside orgs that project this ideology.
It’s true that many Republicans would remain in blue states. Cultural revolution might accelerate in these places (as we already see in deep-blue cities). But a separation could at least create an escape haven as blue states grow increasingly hostile and/or dysfunctional.
Obviously, many questions remain. It’s not clear such a split could be executed peacefully (though it may be the best chance at peace). But we must confront the reality that drives many to consider the prospect.
A better option could be sufficient state autonomy to allow red states to protect themselves from these forces without fully splitting. Currently the left seems intent on blocking this—on imposing their agenda throughout the country, rather than simply in their strongholds.
But strong pushback might change this. The prep that could make this credible—continued population sort, new tech/commercial/cultural institutions, political orgs suited to the times, stronger state-and-local political focus, etc.—would also be needed for a national split.
Likewise, the steps that force the feds (and private actors) to allow red states greater autonomy—defiance of overreaching judicial orders, state regulation of Big Tech and CRT, state immigration enforcement—would also be key actions of an independent red America.
Thus, however likely an actual national split, it’s helpful to proceed aware that this is a potential path, and one we must prepare for. Further, our willingness to take aggressive action now may restore the state autonomy that lets us avoid a far more costly split.